The Baja Western Onion e-mail Newsletter - Hurricane Beatriz, Tuesday, June 21, 2011 - Community News For Baja California Sur Mexico, Todos Santos, Pescadero, La Paz, San Jose Del Cabo San Lucas Los Barriles East Cape
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The Baja Western Onion - News For Baja California Sur
       Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Hurricane Beatriz


Center of Beatriz right along the coast of Mexico - Summary of 500 AM PDT Information:

Location...19.4n 105.0w
About 15 Mi...20 Km SSE Of La Fortuna Mexico
About 50 Mi...80 Km WNW Of Manzanillo Mexico
Maximum Sustained Winds...90 Mph...150 Km/H
Present Movement...NW Or 325 Degrees At 13 Mph...20 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...977 Mb...28.85 Inches
A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect For The Coast Of Mexico From Lazaro Cardenas Northwestward To Cabo Corrientes. At 500 am PDT...1200 utc...the center of hurricane Beatriz was located near Latitude 19.4 north...longitude 105.0 west. Beatriz is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph...20 km/h. This general motion is expected to continue today...with a gradual turn toward the west-northwest expected tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast track...the center of Beatriz will continue moving along the coast of Mexico between La Fortuna and Cabo Corrientes over the next few hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph... 150 km/h...with higher gusts. Beatriz is a Category One Hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane wind scale. Weakening is expected to begin Later today or tonight.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km. The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb...28.85 inches.

Recent microwave imagery shows that Beatriz has developed a well-defined 20-25 n mi wide eye...a feature that also made a short-lived appearance in infrared imagery. Satellite intensity estimates have increased to 90 kt from sab and 77 kt from tafb...with automated estimates from the university of wisconsin of 90 kt. Based on this...the initial intensity is raised to 80 kt... And this could be conservative. Cloud tops in the eyewall are colder than -80c...and the cirrus outflow is good in all directions.

The initial motion is now 330/10. Beatriz is heading for a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a Large deep-Layer trough over the central united states. The Large-scale models are in good agreement that this trough should move eastward during the next few days...with a mid-level ridge developing north of Beatriz. This evolution should gradually cause the cyclone to turn toward the left...with a generally westward track expected by 48 hr. However...before this turn occurs...the center is likely to pass over or near the coast of Mexico between manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes. The new forecast track is simiLar to the previous track...but is adjusted a little to the north based on the current position and motion.
There is a chance for additional strengthening this morning...and the maximum winds could reach 85-90 kt before the center interacts with the coast of Mexico. After that...a combination of Land interaction and a forecast track over colder sea surface temperatures should cause Beatriz to weaken. The new intensity forecast assumes that Land interaction will not cause a rapid disintegration...with the cyclone gradually dying out over the colder water west of Cabo Corrientes. An alternative scenario is that the cyclone circuLation is seriously disrupted by the mountains of western Mexico. If this occurs...Beatriz would weaken faster and dissipate earlier than currently forecast.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds
INIT 21/0900Z 18.8N 104.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 19.5N 105.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 20.4N 106.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 20.7N 108.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 20.9N 109.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 21.0N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 21.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 21.0N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
National Hurrican Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/083413.shtml?3-daynl

EEB Mike: http://www.eebmike.com/





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