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Center of Beatriz right along the coast of Mexico - Summary of 500 AM PDT Information:
Location...19.4n 105.0wA Hurricane Warning Is In Effect For The Coast Of Mexico From Lazaro Cardenas Northwestward To Cabo Corrientes. At 500 am PDT...1200 utc...the center of hurricane Beatriz was located near Latitude 19.4 north...longitude 105.0 west. Beatriz is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph...20 km/h. This general motion is expected to continue today...with a gradual turn toward the west-northwest expected tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast track...the center of Beatriz will continue moving along the coast of Mexico between La Fortuna and Cabo Corrientes over the next few hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph... 150 km/h...with higher gusts. Beatriz is a Category One Hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane wind scale. Weakening is expected to begin Later today or tonight.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km. The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb...28.85 inches.
Recent microwave imagery shows that Beatriz has developed a well-defined 20-25 n mi wide eye...a feature that also made a short-lived appearance in infrared imagery. Satellite intensity estimates have increased to 90 kt from sab and 77 kt from tafb...with automated estimates from the university of wisconsin of 90 kt. Based on this...the initial intensity is raised to 80 kt... And this could be conservative. Cloud tops in the eyewall are colder than -80c...and the cirrus outflow is good in all directions.
The initial motion is now 330/10. Beatriz is heading for a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a Large deep-Layer trough over the central united states. The Large-scale models are in good agreement that this trough should move eastward during the next few days...with a mid-level ridge developing north of Beatriz. This evolution should gradually cause the cyclone to turn toward the left...with a generally westward track expected by 48 hr. However...before this turn occurs...the center is likely to pass over or near the coast of Mexico between manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes. The new forecast track is simiLar to the previous track...but is adjusted a little to the north based on the current position and motion.
Forecast Positions And Max Winds
INIT 21/0900Z 18.8N 104.3W 80 KT 90 MPHNational Hurrican Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/083413.shtml?3-daynl
EEB Mike: http://www.eebmike.com/
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